submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today
The only way to survive for an economy is to adapt to the pandemicThe more prey, the more predators. The increase in the number of predators reduces the population of prey, which, in turn, reduces the population of predators. The interaction of a pandemic and the economy is similar to the laws of nature, with the virus being the predator and the economy being the prey. The only way for the economy to survive is to adapt. It is difficult without a coronavirus vaccine. It may be proven by the drop in the U.S. unemployment claims below 1 million, which supports the US dollar.
Despite a positive reading, the US jobs market is far from the norm. Over the past three months, the economy has created 9 million new jobs, but this is only 43% of the 21 million lost in the March-April period. The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs also decreased from 25 million to 15.5 million. However, this is more than two times more than the maximum recorded during the previous global financial crisis (6.6 million). The US jobs market urgently needs a fresh fiscal stimulus, but the Republicans and the Democrats can’t reach an agreement.
Dynamics of the U.S. unemployment rate
Source: Financial Times.
Donald Trump says too much aid package will keep Americans from returning to jobs. 82% of 62 experts polled by the Wall Street Journal do not agree. They say additional payments to unemployment benefits do the economy more good than harm, as they support consumer demand. The U.S. President doesn’t agree. Trump argues with the Democrats, linking the fiscal stimulus size with the canceling voting by mail in the 2020 presidential election.
The red-line policy influences all financial markets. Trump won’t benefit from a new round of the US-China trade war, as it would demonstrate that he has not achieved any progress in this area during his four years in power. Joe Biden says Trump’s policy concerning China is a failure. Trump wouldn’t support his opponent. Besides, the stock indexes, which indicate the efficiency of Trump’s policy, are likely to drop if the US imposes new import tariffs against China. China doesn’t fulfill its obligations under the phase 1 trade deal in full. But Beijing has an excuse, the pandemic. Everything can be improved. In 2021.
The escalation of the trade war would seriously hit the Chinese economy, whose recovery pace is slowing down. The domestic demand doesn’t meet the industrial production, which is indicated by a poor reading of China’s retail sales data in July.
Dynamics of China’s industrial production and retail sales
China could be an example of an economy adapts to the pandemic. The fact that it has problems suggests that the euro-area economy may also recover not as soon as the EUUSD bulls expect. Unless the pair breaks out the resistance at 1.188, it can enter the middle-term consolidation in the range of 1.158-1.188.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
The week has started and was led by the only title and header around all economic news which is “US-China trade wars”.submitted by Esabellaason to PrimeXBT [link] [comments]
US-China trade wars in general had its effect on all markets, including cryptocurrency. The United States wants to tighten cryptocurrency use and claimed that it’s been used by smugglers and drug-dealers and pointed out that most of the transactions are made in China.
This week BTC tried to break $10500 on Monday, August 26th and was rejected, the price then was floating between $10400-10300 and continued the correction down to $10027. Uncertainty in the BTC has ended when the price hit $10400 again and showed a massive drop to $9366. We will point out several reasons of this week’s drop. The drop could be a result of an update in the US when rumors on crypto-currency taxation became real. Several notes sent by the IRS to crypto-currency holders pushed some investors to get rid of the BTC and led to a major sell.
The Wright and Kleiman case brings another reason to worry about. If Kleiman family surely inherited billions of $ worth of Bitcoin, then they should declare IRS the quantity and pay state taxes. Most probably, when these BTC’s received if they exist, the Kleiman family will sell them, which will result another drop-down of BTC.
CME Exchange’s futures contracts for Bitcoin is expiring today, though the Exchange showed a record-high $515M daily trading volume in May, futures expiry date gave extra-strength to sellers.
The price by the time published is traded at $9608 per BTC, from the technical point of view the price still has to find greater grounds for another massive jump.
Though we can see that a double-bottom pattern in 1-hour chart and most likely BTC will test $9750
CME Exchange will continue to offer Bitcoin futures which is a positive sign for the cryptocurrency and announcement of the release of ICE-backed Bakkt Bitcoin futures in September 23 could be that pump to get the price above $10K.
Now let’s move to Forex marketThe pair to watch this week and the next week is EURUSD.
Economy of Germany which EU's locomotive and other countries are cars, has showed a slight 0.1% decrease in the second quarter of 2019 related to the previous quarter. We can never deny the fact that the EU union with all its economy and power of its currency is completely dependent to the economic well-being of Germany. If the third quarter of this year doesn't show mercy to Germany's economy or Germany doesn't change policies to not only stabilize but improve the economy, the EU should prepare well for recession.
Not only economic state of Germany but rumors and news and overall hype over Brexit and Italy's economic crisis are considered to be a sinker of Euro against USD. For Euro to gain power and for EURUSD to show an uptrend again, firstly all rumors and preparations on recession should be reduced to nothing and EU states should do the needful to prevent the new economic crisis.
This week’s economic data from Germany was not positive, IFO Business Climate was below forecasted 95.1 and 94.3 was announced, German GDP was -0.1. These were news which weakened the European currency, although the worst scenario was yet to come. Thursday, August 29 Germany made an announced on the unemployment, and the number was four times higher than on the previous unemployment change, 4K. Since the announcement EURUSD was showing downwards movement and plummeted to 1.0990
If no signs of progress are shown next week, especially if the German Manufacturing PMI numbers don’t show positive, the price will continue downtrend to 1.0950 and find the next support at 1.0850
The political tension between EU and UK, US and China last week showed us more-or-less unpredictable movements in US, China, HK, EU, UK stock market indices. Since the “trade-war” begun and US applying higher tariffs on Chinese goods and China taking counter-action the only gainers of these back-to-back pokes were Gold and Silver. Gold showed one more time that it’s the most trusted asset to invest. The price hit $1555 highs this week and is now showing signs of short-term correction being traded at $1526. Major Investment institutions such as UBS and Citigroup look positive on Golds new summit ascents. Mainly UBS has stated that the next week the price could reach $1600.
From the technical point we can see that the price is trying to break the barrier at 1530, and is still unlucky.
This could mean that if the support at $1520 is broken, the correction will continue to $1515 and $1507.
If the downtrend is impulsive the price will reach $1494, where it will find support and another upwards move shall be expected.
At the other hand, confirmation of Gold’s uptrend move will be breaking of resistance at $1530 where the price shall face a mile-stone of resistances at 1545-1563-1571.
From the Global prospective we should follow the upcoming Manufacturing PMI’s announcements of Germany and the US, US Non-Farm payrolls and Unemployment rates. Pay a very close attention to announcements of these three states Australia, UK and Canada, as well. Report prepared by analysts from PrimeXBT.
HOME CHARTS & QUOTES FOREX NEWS FOREX QUOTES LEARN FOREX FOREX BROKER LIST BOOKMARK FEEDBACK. FOLLOW US. Financial News: U.S. Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected To . U.S. Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected To 709,000 11/12/2020 - 09:21:00 (RTTNews) (RTTNews) - A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a bigger than expected decrease in first-time claims for U.S ... Unemployment insurance weekly claims From dol.gov In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,648,000, an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week's revised level. Weekly US unemployment benefit data up next It sure doesn't feel like it but it's Fed day. The US election continues to hang in the balance. Trump is making up ground in Arizona but pollwatchers ... Live Forex Charts. Major Pairs › GBP/USD; EUR/USD; USD/JPY; USD/CAD; AUD/USD; USD/CHF; NZD/USD; Minor Pairs › USD/INR; EUR/JPY; GBP/JPY; AUD/NZD; EUR/GBP; USD/MXN; USD/PHP; USD/ZAR; USD/CNY; USD/KRW; USD/CZK; Education. Forex Trading › What is Forex? Forex Currency Pairs; Forex Pros & Cons; Trading Strategies; Types of Orders; Risk Management; Forex Analysis › Technical Analysis ... Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims in the United States averaged 675.92 Thousand from 2020 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 1352.18 Thousand in May of 2020 and a record low of 31.95 ... Initial and continuing unemployment claims are edging lower from painfully high levels, but for the real story on what is happening in the US jobs mar It seems like US states' have overpaid the unemployment relief claims over the spring and summer, and though the money have long been spent, they are asking for repayments or those in question ...
[index]          
Unemployment Rate Graphs 1. Weekly Unemployment Claims 0:30 2. Labor Force Participation Rate 3:51 3. Automation, Population, and Unemployment Flow Chart Starts at 5:23 and Completes its Cycle at 6:56 Do you want direct, breaking news alerts from Ignition Time? Get your cell phone out and from your cell phone, send an SMS: TEXT IGNITION TO 70000 or TEXT TI... The S&P 500 is almost 30 per cent off its lows despite 22m US initial jobless claims; the FT's US finance editor Robert Armstrong tries to resolve this apparent contradiction. See if you get the ... #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join the A1 Trading Team? See trades taken by our top trading analysts, join our live trading chatroom, and acces... Trend Detection Software- https://bit.ly/37yi0vY Forex Backtesting Simulator- https://ForexSimulator.com Indicators- https://PipsAhoy.com/downloads Good brok... I've been trading forex live since 2004. Watch me go through the technicals and fundamentals of currency trading live. Do you have a question? JUST ASK! Download my chart templates below... Close. This video is unavailable.